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2019-01-02 | 編輯: | 【

  作為干旱區的濕島,我國天山豐富的積雪資源是水資源的重要組成部分,融雪水是河川徑流的重要補給較來源,也直接影響著下游綠洲農牧業生產及生態安全。由于山區雪深記錄時間短,使得區域雪深長期變化的評價比較困難,也給天山山區長時間尺度的氣候變化研究以及積雪雪深動態影響評估帶來困難。 

  針對我國天山山區積雪雪深百年尺度的變化特征評估這一科學問題,中國科學院新疆生態與地理研究所李蘭海研究員團隊利用1901-2014年的再分析資料和1961-2014年的觀測資料,應用人工神經網絡(ANN)方法,重建了天山地區1901-1960年雪深數據,分析了中國天山地區過去百年雪深歷史的變化特征。以1901-19601961-20141901-2014期間月降雪深度的變化,分別作為歷史、觀測和百年尺度周期進行雪深變化趨勢評估。 

  研究結果表明,天山地區雪深在1901-2014年整體呈現下降趨勢,但是不同區域的變化趨勢并不一致。南天山和東天山的積雪深度在這三個時期都有所增加;伊犁河谷、天山北坡在1901-1960年和1961-2014年分別為增加趨勢,但在1901-2014年為下降趨勢。不同時間尺度下雪深變化趨勢的差異表明雪深增加的時間尺度不是百年尺度的,而是年代際的。在空間尺度上,西天山和北天山的雪深值較高,而南天山和東天山的雪深值較低。此外,隨著天山海拔高度的增加,重建雪深的增加趨勢更為明顯,但在1000-1500m海拔高度上雪深的增加幅度較小。本研究為積雪模擬提供了研究基礎,為水文生態模擬提供了補充資料,研究結果也使科研人員能夠更好的認識積雪資源對氣候變化的響應。 

  相關研究結果以Snow depth reconstruction over last century: trend and distribution in the Tianshan Mountains, China為題發表在Global and Planetary Change上。 

  文章鏈接:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818118304089 

Different trends of snow depth in the Tianshan Mountains during observed period (1961–2014), historical period (1901–1960), and overall period (1901–2014).

A (eastern), b (southern), c (western), d (northern), and e (ensemble mean).

 
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