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2019-05-24 | 編輯: | 【

  干旱區占全球陸地面積的45%, 是生態系統和水資源系統最脆弱的地區之一, 也是受氣候變化最為敏感的地區。關于全球變暖背景下干旱區變得更加干旱還是濕潤成為當今科學界討論的熱點問題。 早在2006年,Held and Solden提出“wet regions get wetter and dry regions drier”,指出在全球變暖背景下,總降水量雖然會增加,但原來降水多的地方降水會更多,原來干旱的地方會變得更干旱。Greve (2012)等整理了1948-2005年期間蒸發和降水的大量資料,對干旱情況的趨勢做了重新分析,提出超過四分之三的地表沒有可分辨的變干或變濕趨勢。以往的研究大多基于全球尺度,然而,不同區域干旱區的干濕變化是否與全球干旱區表現的一致尚沒有得到很好地回答。同時,有研究結果顯示自20世紀80年代以來全球干旱區的面積呈現出擴張的趨勢,然而,哪些區域變干、哪些區域在變濕、不同區域的干濕變化規律如何尚不得而知。 

  針對上述問題,中國科學院新疆生態與地理研究所荒漠與綠洲生態國家重點實驗室陳亞寧研究員團隊,利用干旱指數分析了過去60多年(1948-2008)全球干旱區的時空變化特征。研究表明,在過去的60年,干旱區面積以512,180 km2/10年的速度增加,其中80年代以后的面積較80年代以前的面積增大了3.1%20世紀80年代以后增加的干旱面積主要分布在東亞、北非和南非的干旱區。有趣的是,80年代前后的北美和北非干旱區的干濕變化截然相反,北美干旱區由濕潤變得干旱,北非干旱區由干旱變得濕潤。定量檢測與大氣環流因子的關系發現,這兩個地區的干濕變化受PDOPacific Decadal Oscillation)和AMOAtlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation)的影響要大于全球升溫的影響。 

  研究結果以Dry/wet pattern changes in global dryland areas over the past six decades為題發表在Global and Planetary Change上。 

  文章鏈接:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.04.017 

Figure 1. Global drylands distribution of the linear trend of P/PET (a) for 1948–2008 (b) for 1948–1979 (c) for 1980–2008.

 
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